The Market is Overreacting Says Analyst. Chainlink, Monacoin, and Zclassic Making a Recovery

8 days ago

The good news -if it can be called that, is that it wasn't as bad as yesterday. Altcoins were not as red overall and there were not a lot of double-digit slips today.


The bad news is that the daily market capitalization has fallen 3% below, dropping hot at $223 Billion, a yearly low that was hit for the first time in nine months -since November of 2017. We lost over $7 Billion today and a sum total of $80 Billion within two weeks. The trade volume is at $13.9 Billion and the Bitcoin Dominance is back to 48.8%.


Yesterday, the Bitcoin price was at $6500 but began to drop in the afternoon. This morning in the Asian Markets, the bears dragged Bitcoin down once again to reach around $6200.


As Bitcoin breaks levels and levels of support, the panic is palpable all over the market. On the day, it has lost -2.53% and 24% in two weeks. The price at $6319 is almost back to same level as it was last month.


On Tuesday, after breaking the all-important $6800 support, analysts have predicted that the Bitcoin price is likely to drop to mid-$6000 due to many factors including a lack of volume in the market, strong downtrend, and the unpredictability of the over-the-counter (OTC) market.


These factors are still the same today and probably in the in the next few days. If BTC fails to recover beyond the $7000 mark, it will likely test support levels below $6000, possibly in mid-$5000, a level that Bitcoin has not seen since February.



Looking at the macro level, Bitcoin is still ahead at 82% year-on-year. Unfortunately, the other cryptos on the Top 10 were not as fortunate. Ethereum is once again down 2.22% and selling at $361.64. Earlier, it made a yearly low at $360. Likewise, the volume has still not picked up at $1.8 Billion.



If we're looking at it from the good side, the rest of the Top 10 coins are better off today than yesterday. EOS is the biggest losers at 6.36%. It is currently exchanging hands at $5.66 and has lost 73% since April. IOTA is still on a huge downtrend and lost -6.33% on the day. Stellar and Litecoin are both down by 5%. Sadly, Litecoin is as light as Ethereum having fallen back to its November prices in its bull run. Currently, it is trading at $62.72. Bitcoin Cash (BCC) has lost -3.85% and Ripple’s XRP is down -2.96%. The price of Bitcoin Cash has declined by 89% since its all-time high at $5500 and Ripple has lost 90 percent of its market cap in the past eight months. There is a marginal growth for both Cardano (ADA) and Tether.  


The Top 100 is bleeding and hurt as most coins and tokens drop to a yearly low to their November- December prices. After a relatively good run, Ethereum Classic is back to $15.12 and has dropped -6.83%. Other losers on the same level in the Top 20 are OmiseGO and NEO.


Further down the list, Chainlink is making a recovery at 12.25%. Monacoin, Zclassic, and Metaverse are also making a headway. There are other obscure alts making the green but not a very long list today as the rest are still bleeding.  HSR, ONT, and PundiX are the leading double-digit losers today ranging from -10% to -14%.

Is the market overreacting?

Presumably, due to some unexplained reason, the market is still reacting to the ETF rejection and the subsequent delay in the ruling. According to Jake Chervinsky, a legal expert, the SEC could further extend this delay all the way to March 2019. Taking his argument on Twitter, Jake says that the SEC has the power to push the ETF decision deadline up to 3 times.


On Wednesday, Dan Morehead, the founder, and CEO of crypto-focused investment firm Pantera Capital, also said in an interview on CNBC's Fast Money that it would be a long time before a Bitcoin ETF gets approved by the SEC, and investors should instead be focused on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE)'s announcement about its upcoming cryptocurrency exchange Bakkt.


"The problem here is that we are no closer to a Bitcoin ETF despite a novel approach to getting around the issue that bothers the SEC... A decision was put off until September 30th, but don't kid yourself: the SEC is likely not considering anything other a lengthy brief on why they will deny the ETF at that time, just as they denied the Winklevoss Bitcoin ETF last month. The reason they are likely to deny it is that it just doesn't fully address the issues that worry the SEC about Bitcoin."


Morehead explained why he thinks investors are overreacting to the news about the SEC postponing a decision on the VanEck-SolidX Bitcoin ETF:


"I think the main thing to remember is that Bitcoin is like very early-stage venture, but has a real-time price feed, and that's a unique thing... People get really excited about the price and overreact, I think, to the announcements... The ETF rejection is the same story we've had for five years. I think the SEC has been very cautious with an ETF."


Brian Kelly, founder of BK Capital Management and also a regular contributor on CNBC Fast Money – said that investors who have been panicking because of the SEC ETF news and selling off are doing it wrong. Kelly also said that it is probably not the right move for Bitcoin investors to react so severely and as it is, in agreement to the other analysts, he doesn’t see Bitcoin ETFs getting approved anytime before the end of 2018. 

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